When the cease-fire settlement between Israel and Hamas was introduced in January, Israelis and Palestinians burst into simultaneous celebrations, optimistic after 15 months of conflict.
Now, with the primary part of the deal over on Sunday and Israel introducing a wholly new proposal that Hamas has already rejected, concern is rising that the preventing that diminished Gaza to rubble, killed tens of hundreds of Palestinians and threatened the lives of hostages might resume.
Because the cease-fire teeters, each Hamas and Israel are pursuing two paths, one diplomatic and one other army.
On the diplomatic entrance, Hamas is insisting on the implementation of the second part of the unique settlement, which requires an finish to the conflict, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the discharge of extra hostages and prisoners.
Israel, although, has made a brand new proposal for a seven-week extension of the present cease-fire, throughout which Hamas can be required to launch half the remaining dwelling hostages in addition to the stays of half the deceased ones. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Sunday attributed the proposal to the work of President Trump’s Center East envoy, Steve Witkoff.
For weeks, Israel has been sending alerts that it wasn’t fascinated with shifting ahead with the second part of the settlement. Whereas the 2 sides agreed to the second part in precept, they by no means labored out the small print and have staked out irreconcilable visions.
Mr. Netanyahu has mentioned repeatedly that Hamas’s authorities and army wing have to be dismantled, a place shared by his right-wing coalition companions within the authorities. Hamas has urged it was keen to surrender civilian governance of Gaza however has firmly rejected dissolving its army wing, a vital supply of its energy within the enclave.
The brand new proposal, as described on Sunday by Mr. Netanyahu, seems to be an try to interchange the cease-fire take care of phrases that may allow Israel to deliver residence dozens of hostages and stays of hostages with out committing to the tip of the conflict.
However the suggestion, analysts mentioned, could also be an effort to shake up the cease-fire talks in a approach that breaks the impasse between Israel and Hamas, no less than briefly.
“It’s probably not possible, but it surely’s a gap provide,” mentioned Shira Efron, an analyst on the Israel Coverage Discussion board, a New York-based analysis group. “It might drive a dialogue that bridges the 2 sides’ positions to increase the cease-fire for a pair weeks or extra.”
Nonetheless, she mentioned, it doesn’t resolve the underlying variations between Hamas and Israel concerning the finish of the conflict.
At a authorities assembly on Sunday, Mr. Netanyahu mentioned the proposal included a short lived cease-fire throughout the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan and the Jewish vacation of Passover. Half of the remaining hostages in Gaza, he mentioned, can be returned to Israel at the start of the short-term cease-fire and the opposite half can be repatriated on the finish, if an settlement on a everlasting cease-fire is concluded.
Within the first part of the three-stage deal agreed to in January, Hamas launched 25 Israeli hostages and handed over the our bodies of eight others in alternate for greater than 1,500 Palestinians jailed by Israel. However with out additional deliberate exchanges of hostages and prisoners, Israel could have fewer incentives to maintain the truce going.
On Sunday, Hamas dismissed the brand new proposal as “a blatant try and renege on the settlement and evade negotiations for its second part.”
Hamas considers the thought of instantly giving up half of the hostages a nonstarter, but it surely might contemplate exchanging a small variety of hostages or our bodies for Palestinian prisoners, even with out a dedication to the tip of the conflict, analysts mentioned. The hostages characterize Hamas’s strongest leverage, and each time it trades an Israeli captive for Palestinian prisoners, its negotiating hand is weakened.
Two Israeli officers, who spoke on situation of anonymity to debate inner deliberations, acknowledged that Hamas would in all probability be keen to surrender solely a small variety of hostages, or their stays, with out ensures for the tip of the conflict. That dynamic, the officers mentioned, could ultimately make Israel select between restarting a conflict to unseat Hamas or saving hostages nonetheless believed to be alive.
About 25 captives and the stays of greater than 30 others are nonetheless in Gaza, in accordance with the Israeli authorities.
“Israel stands on the horns of a dilemma,” mentioned Yaakov Amidror, a retired main normal who served as Mr. Netanyahu’s nationwide safety adviser.
On Sunday, Hazem Qassim, a spokesman for Hamas, mentioned the militant group was insisting on negotiating the second part as a result of it needed to stop the resumption of the conflict and guarantee Israel withdraws from Gaza.
“This can be a elementary place for the Hamas motion,” he instructed the Qatari-funded broadcaster Al Jazeera.
Each Israel and Hamas have despatched negotiators to speak with Egyptian and Qatari mediators. However even because the diplomatic discussions proceed, the 2 sides are making ready for the opportunity of a return to conflict.
Hamas has been accumulating unexploded bombs all through Gaza and repurposing the explosives and their metallic instances as improvised explosive units, in accordance with one member of the Qassam Brigades, Hamas’s army wing, who spoke on situation of anonymity to debate delicate particulars. The militant group has additionally been recruiting new members and changing commanders killed within the preventing, the particular person mentioned.
Israel has prepared extensively for a brand new and intense marketing campaign in Gaza, in accordance with Israeli officers. They mentioned any new operations would come with focusing on Hamas officers who siphon off help provides meant for civilians, in addition to destroying buildings and infrastructure utilized by the Hamas-run civilian authorities.
Such a plan has not but been accredited by the Israeli cupboard, the officers mentioned, however they imagine that solely Mr. Trump might dissuade Mr. Netanyahu from renewed conflict.
Whereas Israel and Hamas battle over Gaza’s future, Palestinian civilians within the enclave, and the households of hostages, are dealing with an anxious interval of limbo.
“They’re being left in a state of perpetual fear,” mentioned Akram Atallah, a London-based Palestinian columnist initially from Jabaliya within the northern Gaza Strip. “If the conflict returns, they stand to lose probably the most.”
Patrick Kingsley and Ronen Bergman contributed reporting.
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